Albert Wegner wrote an awesome post recently on how Innovation Upends Extrapolation. The gist of the post is that it is dangerous to extrapolate a trend into the future when you are dealing with complex systems. One of the reasons for this that isn’t directly mentioned in the post is the idea of “diseconomies of […]
Category Archives: Complexity
The Lily Pad Problem – Why We Mishandled Coronavirus
There is a problem you sometimes see on IQ tests that reads something like this: If the number of lily pads on a pond double every day, and it takes 30 days for them to cover the entire pond, on what day is the pond half covered? Many people answer 15 days, as that is […]